A slight improvement was noticeable in April, with the Athelney Trust unaudited NAV creeping up by 1.7% but still lagging the various small cap. indices over the month and well and truly left behind by those trusts which specialize in a growth strategy whereas, of course, ATY has always concentrated on value and income. Not only is the latter deeply unfashionable at the moment, it seems that the gap between the two strategies has not been so marked since early 2000, just before the dot-com bust. So we will be staying as we are, ploughing the same furrow, as we have for the best part of a quarter of a century. We did not get involved in the dot-com boom and bust and have no intention of involving ourselves in the UK equivalent of the FAANGs. As the month ended, it became increasingly clear that there was to be no interest rate rise in May. Furthermore, the Q2 GDP figures will not be released until after the August Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has already taken place, so it is possible that nothing will happen until November.

My view, for what it is worth, is that the Bank should do nothing until we find out whether the 0.1% growth in GDP reported for Q1 was a blip or the start of something worse. Taking into account the Beast from the East and the collapse of Carillion, it may be that we are running at about 0.3% growth per quarter, which is certainly nothing to write home about. Inflation seems to be coming down quite nicely and the Bank’s 2% target may be met as soon as the end of this year. Nominal wage growth remains at less than 3% a year, which is parsimonious by past standards. Inflation in the dominant service sector is low and has been falling. The economy will need higher interest rates at some point but, for now, the MPC should bide its time. The one thing that worries me is the poor results coming from the small-cap sector. In April, Athelney experienced heavy falls in five of its shares as results or trading statements disappointed. A switch in favouritism from growth to value and income cannot take place until the results start to improve.