Since the referendum vote in June 2016, the British pound has lost 15% of its value against other currencies. Some see an upside to this slump: with products more competitive abroad, so the argument goes, the economy will re-balance away from consumer spending towards export-led growth. For the last three centuries, Britain has run a trade surplus. Its greatest, at the height of the British Empire, was 6% of GDP in 1881. However, in recent years, Britain has run large trade deficits. The impact of sterling’s devaluation has been distinctly underwhelming. Firms are locked into global supply chains and rely on foreign imports. Half the components in a British-made car come from abroad so if exports rise then so do imports.

The economy is also highly geared to value-added things like pharmaceuticals. Buyers of these and legal and financial services are insensitive to price changes: design and customer service quality are much more important. Profitability is near record highs yet business investment is stalling – last year non-banks stuffed an extra £74bn on deposit. The tentative behaviour of businesses should be a wake-up call to ministers who have been banking on a re-orientation of British trade away from Europe after we leave the EU. Following a period of stability, the pound has started to fall again but it would be a brave and optimistic Leaver looking through rose-coloured glasses who would believe that an export boom is just around the corner.