Waterside Court, Falmouth Road, Penryn, Cornwall TR10 8AW
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Monthly Update: August 2016
Aug 31 2016

Not at all a bad month for equities in general and small caps. in particular with the Athelney Trust unaudited NAV up by 3.8% whereas the FTSE Small Cap, Fledgling and AIM All-share indices rose by 2.6%, 3.6% and 4.7% respectively. Am I allowed to ask the question again, what will the economic effects of the UK leaving the EU be? Well, the strongest clue to the answer has come from currency markets: on 23 June, sterling reached a high of $1.50 and €1.31 shortly after polls closed. It then plummeted and has averaged about $1.30 and €1.18 ever since. In trade-weighted terms, the pound is down more than 15 % from its level a year ago when Mr Cameron started the renegotiation which would lead to the referendum. Foreign exchange markets are not always a reliable witness – they can be volatile and daily movements can often be impenetrable.

But when rates move sharply and then settle down quietly without second thoughts, their judgement should not be ignored. Currency markets are saying that all UK assets are worth less than they used to be. Land, buildings, companies, bank deposits, government debt – everything in the UK has been marked down against the rest of the world. Although the FTSE 100 index has boomed, that is largely because many of its components earn most of their revenue and profits outside the UK. Holiday-makers were the first to notice the difference but all Britons go abroad every day to buy petrol, food, clothes and much more. Imports are equal to 30% of GDP and it is only a matter of time before we are all poorer. Seventy years ago the pound could buy $4.03 and its has been periodically devalued since then. Each devaluation produced a temporary fall in the real exchange rate but it was not long before domestic costs started rising faster than the costs of our international competitors and so the advantage was eroded.

Travellers returning from abroad have already tasted what is to come. Whether getting poorer is what 52% of the 23 June voters wanted or expected, it is what is happening.

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