The Athelney Trust unaudited NAV rose by 7.4 per cent in July compared with the 6.8, 6.5 and 6.8 per cent rises for the FTSE Small Cap, Fledgling and AIM All-share indices over the same period.
The Bank of England had not changed base rates in seven years but, when it finally moved, it cut rates by a quarter of a point to 0.25 per cent. Not only that, it also expanded its quantitative easing scheme and introduced a new funding wheeze for banks. The move came on 4 August – three prime ministers, two disappointing European football campaigns and two referendums since the last change. The news lately has been almost uniformly bad. Manufacturing, service-sector and construction activity all shrank sharply in July, the latter two at the fastest pace since 2009. Economic confidence has taken a hard knock with surveys of business revealing a broad pessimism across all sectors as orders dry up.
The British economy seems destined to suffer a mild recession, if not something far worse. The MPC has restarted QE and is pledged to buy up to £60 billion in government bonds and £10 billion in corporate bonds over the next 18 months. The new funding scheme is designed to help banks and building societies which might otherwise struggle to cut their lending rates in line with base rates. Heavy lifting, however, will have to be undertaken by fiscal policy:a bold new programme of investment in energy, the environment and public housing plus cuts in employers’ and employees’ National Insurance costs would be a good start. A lower level for the pound might indicate that exports to Europe could be expected to pick up but European firms will be reluctant to spend more money in the U.K. until the future of the trading relationship between the two is clearer.
For now, the rest of us must sleep in the dashed uncomfortable bed made for us by the Leavers. The search for income goes on – in fact it has intensified since 4 August – so equities and commercial property still seem to be the only games in town.
