Athelney Trust’s total return for the first quarter was a rather uninspiring -1.6% compared with falls of 2, 3.6 and 1.2 % in the FTSE Small Cap, AIM All-share and Fledgling indices. I make no apology for returning to the subject of the 23 June referendum since the result, particularly if it is to leave the EU, would have a profound effect on the stock market and the British pound. Specialists say a 15% fall in the latter would accompany a negative vote and I dare say something similar might occur in equities.

Much has been said about a newly ‘independent’ Britain being able to negotiate a free-trade zone with the rump of the EU. Yet the EU’s single market is deeper than a free-trade zone. It dismantles both tariffs and non-tariff barriers involving standards, regulations and rules of origin. That explains why joining the EU boosted Britain’s exports to West Germany so that its share of the latter’s imports doubled from 8 to 16% in a few short years. Brexiteers claim that a good deal would be easy to negotiate but the climate would be frosty in the extreme and Brussels would be anxious to avoid ‘give-aways’ in case others might wish to leave. I am sure that Germany would wish to continue to sell cars to us but what about those other countries with a trade deficit with the UK or who hardly do anything with us at all? A unanimous vote would be required. Hopes of good deals with the rest of the world look illusory: Britain would have to replace all 53 free-trade pacts and South Korea and Mexico, to name only two, are notoriously difficult to talk to. Several big countries, notably America, China and India, are negotiating new deals with the EU from which we would be excluded.

My conclusion is that we would end up with fewer and worse trade deals than we have now.