Yet again, the Athelney Trust unaudited NAV fell in August, this time by 0.3 per cent and again marred by disappointing trading up-dates and actual profit announcements. This trend started in January in the value and income segment of the market and is still with us today. On a larger scale, America’s bull market in equities became 3,453 days old on 22 August. Since hitting a low of 666 in March 2009, the S&P 500 has risen fourfold, driven by strong corporate profits, low inflation, stable economic growth and a bucket-full of central bank stimulus.
Despite five corrections of 10 per cent or more, the index has never entered bear market territory and so many say that this is the longest bull market in history. Not only the longest but the most unloved: yet the index has risen by 16.5 per cent a year which compares favourably with just about everything except 1990-2000 where the index went up by 19 per cent per annum. The S&P’s PE ratio is now 25 which some say is too high and point to widening credit spreads and bubbly asset prices particularly in the Big Tech sector. But those clever chaps in Goldman Sachs put the chances of a bear market starting soon as less than one in five. Can’t disagree with that.
