If 2016 was the year of shock and surprise, then 2017 was the year of disruption. A blizzard of tweets followed President Trump’s inauguration (my nuclear button is bigger than yours – all grown-up stuff, of course). Prime Minister (strong and stable leadership) May turned a cast-iron majority into something much more precarious depending on the goodwill of the DUP and the Scottish Conservatives. The general election campaign was a superb example of ineptitude. As far as Brexit was concerned, Britain gave way completely on the Irish border, the rights of EU workers and the divorce settlement so was allowed to prepare for trade talks this year. Let us see how easy they turn out to be! Syria spent its sixth year in a civil war and Yemen was not far behind in terms of danger to life. The rise of the populist parties continued in Europe and brought with it an exceptionally unwelcome increase in anti-Semitism. President Maduro of Venezuela continued with his quest to destroy what at one time had been the strongest economy in Latin America. Tanks rolling down the streets of Harare eventually persuaded autocratic President Mugabe to resign while, at the same time, the Generals were claiming no, there is no coup.

For the most part, though, global markets continued their serene progress and thus improved on my hope that we could hang on to our gains of the first half. Austria, Turkey and Hong Kong were the best-performing markets of the year and Russia, China and Mexico the worst. Russia is often touted as a recovery situation but four sets of sanctions have always put me off, resulting from the arrest and murder of Sergei Magnitsy, the invasion of eastern Ukraine and the Crimea, the shooting down by pro-Moscow fighters of Malaysian Airlines flight number 17 and interference in the U.S general election. A better proposition might be battered and bashed retailers and shopping malls. Westfield is being bought by Unibail-Rodamco, Hammerson has bid for Intu and Brookfield is trying to buy out GGP. Hedge funds are heavily short and therefore vulnerable. The same comment applies, in my opinion, to underrated brewery groups such as Greene King and Marston’s.
A 5-7 per cent return in 2018 plus 3 per cent in dividends would please me greatly.