It’s probably easier to say what didn’t happen in January rather than what did. Anyway, there was the collapse in the price of Brent crude to below $50 per barrel, the surprise announcement by the SNB to end the cap on the franc against the euro (which cost the unwary a great deal of loot), the surprisingly large amount being committed to QE by the ECB, the Greek election and a sharp increase in volatility in FX markets.
Yet little seemed to affect equity markets with the FTSE Fledgling and Small Cap up by 2% and 1.2% respectively compared with the rise in the unaudited NAV of Athelney Trust of 1.2%. The AIM All-share where ATY has 35% of its portfolio, however, again disappointed with a fall of 1.7%. Back to FX markets, though, and the main reason for this sudden surge of volatility seems to be the divergence in monetary policy: no longer are the central banks moving in the same direction. The ECB and Bank of Japan will be printing money and attempting to devalue their respective currencies whereas the Fed. and the Bank of England have finished with QE and are both looking to start the process of normalizing interest rates, perhaps Q4 or early in 2016.
Meanwhile, all eyes are on the sharply dressed (?) Finance Minister of Greece as he tours Europe explaining his frustration at the (unnecessary?) constraints imposed by being part of the euro zone. It looks like being another tricky year…
