Waterside Court, Falmouth Road, Penryn, Cornwall TR10 8AW
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Monthly Update: July 2019
Jul 06 2019

The ongoing spat between the US and China is clearly affecting the global economy which by all accounts continues to slow faster than expected. In the UK, the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 0.75% against a backdrop of this weaker global growth, ongoing trade tensions and an expectation that the UK economy would grow by 1.3% this year, down from a previous projection of 1.5% in May. Furthermore, the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), that sets interest rates, indicated that the UK economy was likely to have stagnated in the three months to June. It also warned that a no-deal Brexit would have a negative effect on the economy and trigger a further drop in the value of the pound. The Bank also reduced its outlook for growth in 2020 to 1.3%, from a previous projection of 1.6%. US Treasury yields continued to soften and the major world markets as represented by the MSCI World Index and the S&P 500 continued to improve, increasing by 0.4% and 1.3% respectively. Once again, performance in the UK market was dominated by large caps, with the FTSE 100 Index increasing by 2.2% while the Small Cap Index declined by 1.0%. The Fledgling Index and the AIM All Share Index both increased by 1.1%. Our portfolio which declined by 0.96% during the month had the effect of causing a 1.1% decline in the NAV. As previously mentioned, the review of the REITS has been completed and we have commenced consolidating our holdings into those quality companies in the portfolio which are unlikely to be disintermediated by technological change and able to maintain or increase their dividend over the next five years. Furthermore, we have added a few names that have attracted our attention and to this end, we favour quality companies with an acceptable level of predictable growth in the business’s medium-term economic performance. Our position in Cineworld, Record, Jupiter Fund Management and Heath Samuel were sold while we increased our exposure to LXI REIT and Treatt, adding Churchill China, Homeserve and Fevertree Drinks to the portfolio.

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