A sliding currency is hardly a new experience for we Britons. The UK led the pack by deserting the gold standard in 1931; Sterling was uncompetitive in 1949 and 1967 and the loss of control of inflation in the 1970s all led to a substantial devaluation. More recently, the pound’s ejection from the ERM in 1992 led to a fall of 18 per cent and, of course, the recent drop of 16 per cent followed the referendum result. Back to 1992, when economic growth quickened to an average of 2.9 per cent over the five years from 1993 and exports grew by 7.7 per cent a year, significantly faster than imports. This neat combination quickly eliminated the current account deficit alongside falling unemployment. So devaluation can be a Good Thing.
However, the global financial crisis showed the dangers of a Bad devaluation: after a 25 per cent depreciation, the five years starting in 2010 came with growth averaging only 1.9 per cent and imports rising faster than exports so the current account deficit rose from 2.7 to 4.6 per cent of GDP. So which will we have this time? This question is as difficult to solve as Fermat’s Last Theorem with only half the formula – however, the omens are not auspicious. The lack of global trade growth suggests that there are no easy export markets to conquer. Higher inflation here at home will hit families who can only just cope at the moment.
There will be winners, though: home tourism, retailers in London and Northern Ireland and exporters’ profit margins will increase temporarily. But the fact remains that the pound has fallen because the UK has a devalued economy. The pounds in our pocket are worth less and we won’t have more of them.
