The US economy expanded at an annualised 3.8% in Q2 2025, exceeding the prior 3.3% estimate and marking its strongest run since late 2023. Growth was driven by a sizeable upward revision in consumer spending, with services and goods both showing solid momentum. Inflation edged up to 3.0% in September, lifted by firmer energy prices. Manufacturing activity eased slightly but continued to improve overall, while the services sector strengthened to its fastest pace since July on strong customer demand. Business confidence rose to an 11-month high.

The Eurozone economy grew 0.2% in Q3 2025, a slight improvement from Q2. Spain and France led the bloc with solid consumer demand and export rebounds, while Germany and Italy stagnated.  Manufacturing weakened, with factory activity slipping as orders and employment fell. By contrast, the services sector continued to strengthen, reaching its fastest pace of expansion in 18 months. Inflation held at 2.1%, broadly in line with the ECB’s target, though services inflation rose to 3.4%. Overall, the region remains resilient, reducing pressure on the ECB to cut rates further.

The UK economy grew just 0.1% in Q3 2025, down from 0.3%, as manufacturing contracted sharply following cyber-related disruptions at Jaguar Land Rover. Services held up modestly, while construction growth nearly stalled. Inflation eased to 3.6% in October, helped by sharp declines in gas and electricity prices, while core inflation slipped to a six-month low. Manufacturing showed a modest return to growth, while the services sector lost momentum as businesses held back ahead of the Budget and demand softened. Firms cut staff and focused on tech investment as input cost pressures moderated.

Global equities were driven by fears of an AI-investment bubble, as fund managers warned that tech giants were overspending on data centres and infrastructure. This shift in sentiment fuelled volatility and coincided with the first global equity fund outflows after a nine-week buying streak. The MSCI World Index ended the month up a 0.18%. In the United States, the S&P 500 gained 0.13% while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 1.51%. In the UK, large caps ended flat with the FTSE 100 up a modest 0.03%. The FTSE 250 declined by 0.03% while the FTSE Small Cap and AIM indexes underperformed, declining 0.37% and 2.37% respectively.

November’s volatility hit our portfolio, specifically some of our smaller growth companies namely PayPoint Plc and NWF Group. Our Net Asset Value (NAV) total return for November was -2.96% after fees and expenses. During the month, we added to our holdings in CakeBox and Liontrust and trimmed our holdings in Dunelm, S&U and NWF Group.

Games Workshop delivered standout results with FY25 revenue up 17%, and net income rising 30%, while Auto Trader saw H1 revenue rise 5%, operating profit up 6%, and EPS up 11% to 17.26p. Liontrust reported a FY25 revenue decline of 14% with £2.3bn in net outflows and AUM of £22bn. Cake Box delivered 53.5% H1 revenue growth to £28.8m, with EBITDA up 31% and raised its interim dividend  by 5.9%. PayPoint delivered solid H1 FY26 growth with revenue up 6.7% to £144.1m.

The largest contributors to portfolio performance were Games Workshop, and 4Imprint Group, each gaining over 15%, while PayPoint, NWF, and RMV were the main detractors.